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THE DATA
Our internal numbers in 2022 & 2023 compared:
- New Yard Sign Installations: 547 | 549
- Up by 0.4%
- Length of Active Yard Signs: 23 days | 28 days
- Up by 5 days
- Yard Sign Removals: 529 | 512
- Down by 3.3%
- Additional Services: 236 | 249
- Up by 5.3%
- 'Stale' Listings (120 days +): 25 | 84
- Up by 29.7%
*Includes adjustment for larger client base
WHAT IT MEANS
- The Average Time on the Market increased immensely, and this time not in a positive way! The average time on market is moving back toward the typical 30-60 day range after hitting unusually low levels in 2021-2022.
- Rebills rate skyrockets AGAIN! As we know, this suggests more buyers are staying engaged and not dropping out after an unsuccessful first attempt. Higher rebill suggests an active, competitive market as we have seen in the previous month.
- We don't see a drastic change in Sign Installations with only a 0.4% increase from this time last year. We can likely conclude that there is a low to moderate seller, but buyers are still active and engaged.
- With Yard Sign Removals being down by 3.3%, we can see that the market is rebalancing slightly. Buyers have a bit more leverage and we see that homes are sitting on the market longer. Supply constraints and high demand still persist to some degree as well.
- Additional Services did take a fall as well by 5.3% which we saw as a notable increase last month. Competition has peaked while affordability challenges remain.
GENERAL ANALYSIS
The housing market avoided a crash that some experts had feared. Zillow predicts that prices will go back to rising steadily, calling for a 5.5% gain in 2023. However, affordability issues persist. Despite slower price gains, mortgage rates near 6.5% mean homes remain unaffordable for many buyers, especially first-time buyers.
Economic uncertainty continues to loom. Recession risks cloud the outlook and may further dampen buyer demand, but the labor market remains strong for now.
As we have discussed before, Millennial homebuyers have made a dent. Their migration to certain metro areas continue to provide a demographic tailwind.
UNLOCKING THE MARKET
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the median existing-home sales price also surpassed $400,000 for the first time in 2023, reaching $410,200 - the second-highest price ever recorded - and is currently on pace to break the all-time high of $413,800 set in June of 2022.
Existing monthly house sales, however, fell by 3.3%, with sales falling in all four of the major U.S. regions on a yearly basis.
Despite rising mortgage rates, the market is nevertheless highly competitive because of high consumer demand and a limited supply of available properties, in part because homeowners who bought houses at historically cheap interest rates in recent years have decided to stay put. These and other elements combine to create the ideal affordability problem storm that keeps many would-be homeowners at a disadvantage.
YOUR THOUGHTS?
What are your thoughts on the market? What else would you like to know? Shoot us your thoughts. We plan on sending out these unique market analysis reports regularly to help our agents better grasp what's been going on and more importantly what to expect.
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