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THE DATA
Our internal numbers in 2022 & 2023 compared:
- Active Listings: Apr. 2022 - 753 | Apr. 2023 - 740
- Down 1.7% from 2022* - New Yard Sign Installations: Apr. 2022 - 546 | Apr. 2023 - 508
- Down 7% from 2022* - Length of Active Yard Signs: Apr. 2022 - 33 Days | Apr. 2023 - 37 Days
- Up 4 Days from 2022 - Yard Sign Removals: Apr. 2022 - 467 | Apr. 2023 - 456
- Down 2.4% from 2022* - Additional Services: Apr 2022 - 243 | Apr 2023 - 268
- Up 9.3% from 2022*
*Includes adjustment for larger client base
WHAT IT MEANS
- Sign removals & active listings were slightly down from last year & way down from March, though this March to April drop seems to follow annual patterns.
- New listings were down a considerable amount, getting dangerously close to that dreaded 10% marker.
- Consistent with all of 2023 thusfar, homes aren't selling as fast. Though that number has been reduced by 3 days from the previous month.
- For the fourth month in a row we saw a notable increase in additional services from the year prior. While this suggests higher buyer interest, overall it isn't a good thing, as we expect significantly more sign swaps, open houses & rider changes, the longer homes stay on the market.
- Us vs Them: For the first time since we began this report in January, Sign Boss agents did not outperform the Houston housing market at large. In fact we slightly underperformed in Homes Sold (Sign Removals) with HAR showing overall home sales were up 2022.
GENERAL ANALYSIS
With the analysis of four months in, and a fifth month wrapping-up we can make some assumptions about the first half of 2023.
The Greater Houston Area is likely to see an overall decrease in the industry, somewhere between 3-8%. We'll have a much better idea this time next month.
We expect that Houston's real estate market growth will continue to slow down in the coming months, but outstanding traumatic events from outside the Lone Star State like more bank failures or massive rate hikes, our market will still be strong, but balanced.
While April marks the first time Sign Boss clients underperformed compared to non-'BOSS' agents, we cheated and looked at May's numbers. All we'll say for now is ya'll will more than make up for it. So we're thinking let's just set this month aside as an outlier, right?
COVID WALL CRUMBLING?
April saw home prices fall for the first time since 2020, according to Axios Houston. To clarify that doesn't mean home prices are at pre-COVID levels, only that this was the first month in 3 years that median prices did not rise or at least maintain.
Why & what does this mean? As you know there are many factors that play into this from supply & demand, economy, financing, market speculation, etc. Answering that question falls well outside of the scope of this article, and many of you likely can answer that question at great length.
Instead what we're interested in asking is, is this the first 'ball to drop' on the historic growth our region has seen in the housing market? We won't rehash the COVID & migration booms, and certainly it's too early to say definitively. But we are highlighting this as it is indeed a crack in the wall, and though we expect some more damage in 2023, it will likely be sporadic. And while we don't expect it to come crashing down Humpty-Dumpty style, (outside of major national events), it's important to keep in mind that since 2020 the bar has been set extremely high, so when any given stat drops below that, it likely is a balancing out in the market versus outright disaster.
YOUR THOUGHTS?
What are your thoughts on the market? What else would you like to know? Shoot us your thoughts. We plan on sending out these unique market analysis reports regularly to help our agents better grasp what's been going on and more importantly what to expect.
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