State of The Real Estate

IN THE HOUSTON AREA USING INTERNAL DATA

May 31, 2023

Finally we can make a health prediction at where the first half of 2023 will land. But what can we say about April? Overall healthy numbers, though for the first time since we began tracking, Sign Boss agents did not outperform the regional market at large on one key metric.

We also highlight what might be the first setback since the historic growth we've been experiencing since 2020. But perspective is everything. Let's delve into our internal data to see what April performance is like, and what we can glean from it moving forward.

THE DATA

Our internal numbers in 2022 & 2023 compared:

*Includes adjustment for larger client base

WHAT IT MEANS

GENERAL ANALYSIS

With the analysis of four months in, and a fifth month wrapping-up we can make some assumptions about the first half of 2023.

The Greater Houston Area is likely to see an overall decrease in the industry, somewhere between 3-8%. We'll have a much better idea this time next month.

We expect that Houston's real estate market growth will continue to slow down in the coming months, but outstanding traumatic events from outside the Lone Star State like more bank failures or massive rate hikes, our market will still be strong, but balanced.

While April marks the first time Sign Boss clients underperformed compared to non-'BOSS' agents, we cheated and looked at May's numbers. All we'll say for now is ya'll will more than make up for it. So we're thinking let's just set this month aside as an outlier, right?

COVID WALL CRUMBLING? 

April saw home prices fall for the first time since 2020, according to Axios Houston. To clarify that doesn't mean home prices are at pre-COVID levels, only that this was the first month in 3 years that median prices did not rise or at least maintain.

Why & what does this mean? As you know there are many factors that play into this from supply & demand, economy, financing, market speculation, etc. Answering that question falls well outside of the scope of this article, and many of you likely can answer that question at great length.

Instead what we're interested in asking is, is this the first 'ball to drop' on the historic growth our region has seen in the housing market? We won't rehash the COVID & migration booms, and certainly it's too early to say definitively. But we are highlighting this as it is indeed a crack in the wall, and though we expect some more damage in 2023, it will likely be sporadic. And while we don't expect it to come crashing down Humpty-Dumpty style, (outside of major national events), it's important to keep in mind that since 2020 the bar has been set extremely high, so when any given stat drops below that, it likely is a balancing out in the market versus outright disaster.

YOUR THOUGHTS?

What are your thoughts on the market? What else would you like to know? Shoot us your thoughts. We plan on sending out these unique market analysis reports regularly to help our agents better grasp what's been going on and more importantly what to expect.

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